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Kent is no stranger to extreme weather:
- the great storm of October 1987
- the River Darent experiencing low flows and running dry in the
1980s and 1990s
- extensive and repeated winter flooding in 2000
- the heatwave of 2003, during which the highest UK temperature
since records began was logged in Kent
- the drought of 2005-06, with hosepipe bans remaining in force
through the winter.
- images of Bewl Water, one of the main reservoirs serving Kent,
at a record low of only 35% full in January 2006.
It is impossible to demonstrate a direct link between climate
change and any of these events. But that does not mean they are not
related. Indeed, they clearly fit the predicted pattern of more
extreme weather events, and hotter, drier, summers.
Other less noticeable changes have been recorded in Kent which
also suggest that climate change is already having an impact on the
county. These include:
- sea level rise at Sheerness
- emergence dates for butterfly species (up to 20 days earlier in
the case of the Adonis Blue, symbol of the Kent Wildlife
Trust)
- earlier arrival and breeding success of bird species like the
Hobby which require a warmer climate.
It is clear that Kent will face some of the greatest extremes of
climate change impacts compared to the rest of the UK.
Future impacts for Kent
The impacts described for the South East region generally apply
to Kent. The maps below summarise changes in average daily
temperature, winter and summer rainfall for the region in 2020s,
2050s and 2080s under low and high emission scenarios.
What difference does 1°C make?
Did you know that today's climate is just 5°C warmer than the
last Ice Age? Climate models predict a similar rise in the next 100
years alone. A rise of just 1°C would extend the growing season for
crops and lawns by 2-3 weeks and could see conditions favourable to
many species shift north by up to 150km.
The EU has adopted 2°C as the target level increase beyond which
climate change should be considered 'dangerous'. While the
implication is that anything below this level would be 'safe'; on a
global scale it would not necessarily be 'comfortable'. Even in
areas like the South East of England the changes are likely to be
more acute. As a result, the 'exceptional' 2003 heatwave could
become 'normal' by the end of the
century. |